Iran strikes, Israel vows revenge

WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING: Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz and his Republican rival JD Vance took part in a televised debate that touched on the current crisis in the Middle East, as well as health care, abortion, migration and gun violence, among other topics. Vance seemed confident while Walz at times appeared hesitant, but overall it was less a slug fest and more Midwestern nice. Our Stateside colleagues conclude that Vance won the debate — but only on style.
GOOD WEDNESDAY MORNING. Nick Vinocur will be holding the Playbook pen Thursday.
TEHRAN STRIKES: Israel vowed Iran will face “consequences” after it fired a barrage of missiles at Tel Aviv and elsewhere on Tuesday. In a televised address after the attack, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tehran had made a “big mistake” and will “pay for it,” adding: “Those who attack us; we attack them.” Iran’s mission to the U.N., meanwhile, said: “Should the Zionist regime dare to respond or commit further acts of malevolence, a subsequent and crushing response will ensue.”
Hypersonic first: In a bid to evade Israel’s Iron Dome defenses, Iran said it had for the first time used its Fattah hypersonic missiles, which take only 12 minutes to reach Israel. But casualties appeared low, after American destroyers joined IDF air defenses in downing incoming missiles, with U.K. assistance.
**A message from McDonald’s: Do you think everyone deserves a safe, respectful and inclusive workplace? So do we. To ensure McDonald’s remains a great place to work, we’re supporting employees by closing remaining pay gaps and offering significant development opportunities. Our 2023-2024 Purpose & Impact Report shows how we’re helping our people thrive.**
Big escalation: All this raises the danger of a heightened cycle of violence, reports my colleague Jamie Dettmer in this essential dispatch from Tel Aviv. Jamie’s analysis of Israel’s ground operation in Lebanon is also worth your time.
BORRELL’S TAKE: In a statement issued on behalf of the EU late last night, Europe’s top diplomat Josep Borrell said: “The EU condemns in the strongest terms Iran’s attack against Israel which constitutes a serious threat to regional security. The EU reiterates its commitment to the security of Israel,” before adding: “We call on all parties to exercise utmost restraint.”
But the EU is struggling to respond with one voice to the Middle East crisis. Before Iran’s attack, the bloc tried — and failed — to issue a joint message calling for an immediate cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah following Monday’s emergency meeting of foreign affairs ministers. Such statements must be unanimous, but the Czech Republic held out — prompting Borrell to issue a statement on his own.
What’s behind Prague’s pause: “The declaration unilaterally limited Israel’s right to self-defense against Hezbollah terrorists who have been shelling civilians in northern Israel for months,” said Daniel Drake, the Czech foreign ministry spokesperson, in a statement. “At the same time, we demanded to add text on the withdrawal of Hezbollah from Israel’s borders.” 
LEBANON EVACUATION HUBS: Western countries are examining options on how to safely evacuate nationals from Lebanon if a full-scale war breaks out. Cyprus, as the closest EU member, is being eyed as an evacuation hub and started preparing to receive people late Tuesday, Nektaria Stamouli writes in to report. Back in 2006, the country processed some 60,000 people fleeing the Hezbollah-Israel war.
Air routes: A French helicopter carrier will arrive in the eastern Mediterranean in the coming days, a French army spokesperson said. Britain has already chartered a commercial flight for its nationals that will depart from Beirut airport today, while last week it announced the deployment of 700 soldiers to Cyprus.
MIGRATION SURGES ONTO THE AGENDA: It didn’t take long. Far-right electoral successes in Austria, France, Germany and the Netherlands are translating into a serious policy shift on migration — and expanding violence in the Middle East is only likely to intensify the urgency.
Strong words: By popular demand from capitals, migration has been added to the tentative list of topics up for discussion when EU leaders meet for their next summit on Oct. 17. A particular focus will be on “strengthening control of the EU’s external borders” and “increasing and accelerating returns,” among other elements of the EU’s approach since 2023, according to draft guidelines for Council conclusions, viewed by Playbook, that ambassadors will discuss in Coreper II today.
G7 dives in: On Friday, at a meeting in Mirabella Eclano, Italy, G7 interior ministers will devote the morning to migration, with a “particular emphasis on combating human trafficking,” according to press material.
Big picture: The crackdown marks a drastic turnaround from the open-borders policy embraced by Germany’s ex-Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose decision to allow more than a million irregular migrants into the bloc in 2015 later sparked an EU-wide backlash. Nick Vinocur, Barbara Moens and Max Griera have more.
STARMER’S BRUSSELS BARNSTORM: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will continue his mission to “reset” the U.K.’s relationship with the EU during a visit to Brussels today, where he will meet with Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Council President Charles Michel and Parliament President Roberta Metsola. Starmer will make a short media statement after his engagements later this afternoon.
Migration on the mind here, too: A new youth mobility deal is Starmer’s top goal, report Sam Blewett and Jon Stone.
Once bitten, twice shy: Starmer is the first U.K. prime minister to visit Brussels since the 2019 European Parliament election (and there have been five PMs since then). There’s great enthusiasm across the institutions for the potential for renewed relations, but there’s zero appetite in Brussels — or EU capitals — for a rebound relationship with Britain. For now, the bloc’s focus is on aligning its message across institutions, ensuring the existing agreements are implemented and giving Starmer space to restore trust.
Starmer stresses “stronger”: “The U.K. is undeniably stronger when it works in lockstep with its closest international partners. This has never been more important — with war, conflict and insecurity all knocking on Europe’s door,” Starmer said last night in a statement. “We will only be able to tackle these challenges by putting our collective weight behind them, which is why I am so determined to put the Brexit years behind us and establish a more pragmatic and mature relationship with the European Union.”
The skepticism is mutual: It’s not just Brussels. Starmer would have to convince critics at home, too — including in his own Cabinet. One of his most senior ministers harbors fears the youth mobility scheme would boost migration figures, and others fear giving any ammunition to Nigel Farage’s anti-immigration Reform UK movement. Read the full article.
POWER GRAB ACCUSATIONS TEST WEBER SUPPORT: Manfred Weber, the German MEP at the top of the EU’s center-right political family, sought to tamp down concerns about his sweeping authority amid a European People’s Party personnel dispute.
It’s all a big misunderstanding! That’s how Weber cast the kerfuffle over his move to install a new chief of staff at EPP HQ during the party’s political assembly in Brussels on Tuesday, hours after it was first reported by Playbook. But there’s growing discomfort with the way the row between Weber and Thanasis Bakolas, the EPP’s secretary-general, is playing out. 
Weber wins … for now: Late last week, Bakolas told the party’s leadership committee that he was dismissing Tom Vandenkendelaere, an ex-MEP handpicked by Weber to serve as the EPP chief of staff, because the EPP’s rules don’t allow for such a role to exist (refresher). But that leadership committee has backed the plan to install Vandenkendelaere, Weber told the party officials attending the EPP’s political assembly in Brussels — casting it as a vindication, according to multiple attendees who spoke with POLITICO.
However, the rare standoff is prompting bigger concerns about Weber’s approach, especially given he’s both the president of the EPP party, which exists to serve national leaders and parties, and leader of the EPP group in the European Parliament.
Alarm bells: “It’s the first time someone accuses the president of the EPP of breaking the law,” one political assembly attendee told my colleague Max Griera, who reports MEPs and staffers were buzzing about the story on the sidelines of the party gathering in Brussels on Tuesday. “They see it [the EPP party] as much weaker than when Weber took over as party president,” the person said, arguing that Weber, as president, is ultimately responsible for the dynamics at Party HQ. “We see now the dysfunctionality, and we are analyzing it.”
Is two hats one hat too many? The attendee questioned whether Weber could effectively manage both the EPP party and the Parliament group, noting wryly: “It’s difficult to do two full time jobs.” But others said they don’t see any issue with the arrangement. One senior EPP MEP told Max that given both the EU election campaign and the post-election negotiations had “worked well,” they have “full confidence in Weber’s management of the EPP.”
Athens backs Bakolas: While Weber has clear sway over MEPs as the leader of their group in the European Parliament, Bakolas, as party secretary-general, answers to center-right leaders in national capitals. He’s close to Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Athens is backing him up, with a Greek official telling Barbara Moens: “We are disappointed [with the way the Vandenkendelaere appointment] was handled. The team did really well at the European elections and a big part of the credit belongs to Thanasis Bakolas. This is an unnecessary discussion.”
The question for Weber is whether other capitals will pile on. For now, he’s consolidating more power in the EPP. Not only is Vandenkendelaere likely to stay on in a role that overlaps with Bakolas’, but Weber also previewed another opportunity for a power move: Next spring’s EPP Congress in Valencia, Spain — where both Weber and Bakolas are to be either reinstated or replaced — will be organized by Weber and Spanish MEP Esteban González Pons. 
DECEMBER START LIKELY: The European Parliament’s top decision-making body is likely to sign off on a confirmation hearing calendar that would see the new Commission start on Dec. 1 at the earliest, Max Griera reports. 
Gone till November: At a meeting today, the Parliament’s Conference of Presidents is likely to sign off on holding confirmation hearings between Nov. 4 and Nov. 12, after a majority of chairs of European Parliament committees backed those dates Tuesday.
What they’ll agree on today: The rough calendar, the committees assigned to grill each commissioner-designate, and the common questions each will be asked.
What they probably won’t agree on: Exact dates.
Reading while you wait for the hearing: A waste scandal is haunting Costas Kadis, Cyprus’ commissioner pick, report Marianne Gros and Nektaria Stamouli.
MEANWHILE, IN PARLIAMENT — POLES JOIN PATRIOTS: Viktor Orbán’s Patriots for Europe group in the European Parliament announced it has two new members, Anna Bryłka and Tomasz Buczek, bringing its total to 86. Bryłka and Buczek are from Poland’s Confederation party, giving a new national delegation to the far-right grouping, now the Parliament’s third-largest.
**How could the new Commission and the industry collaborate in building an aviation workforce that is future-proof? Hear from our experts on October 16 at POLITICO Live’s event “The uptake of technologies to fly net zero by 2050”. Register now to follow the debate online!**
UKRAINE LATEST: Russian troops have reached the center of Vuhledar, a strategically important town on high ground in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region, a regional official said Tuesday. Reuters has a write-up.
AUSTRIA ELECTION FALLOUT: Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer from the conservative ÖVP called for the far-right Freedom Party to get a chance to form a government coalition after it won Sunday’s election. Latest here.
ARE SMARTPHONES THE NEW CIGARETTES? Countries should consider regulating digital devices like smartphones in a similar way to tobacco products, to combat social media’s rising negative impact on young people’s mental health, the World Health Organization’s Natasha Azzopardi Muscat said.
— European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen receives U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer at 2 p.m. … also meets with Georgia’s President Salome Zourabichvili.
— European Parliament President Roberta Metsola presides over the Conference of Presidents meeting at 4 p.m. … She also meets with Starmer at 5 p.m.
— European Council President Charles Michel also meets with Zourabichvili and Starmer.
— EU ambassadors meet in Coreper II at 9 a.m. … deputy ambassadors meet in Coreper I at 10 a.m.
— Weekly European Commission College meeting, followed by a readout and press conference by Commissioner for International Partnerships Jutta Urpilainen on building sustainable international partnerships.
— Home Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johansson is in Mirabella Eclano, Italy at the G7 interior ministers’ meeting.
— EU High Representative Josep Borrell in Mexico for inauguration ceremony of President Claudia Sheinbaum.
— Commission Vice President Věra Jourová receives Bojan Božović, Montenegro’s justice minister, and meets by video conference with Andrej Kiska, the former president of Slovakia.
— Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders also meets with Božović.
— Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson is in Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil. She meets with Diego Pardow, Chile’s energy minister, and with Parviz Shahbazov, the energy minister for Azerbaijan.
— Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni participates in the Confindustria event with members of the European Parliament.
— Finance Commissioner Mairead McGuinness participates in POLITICO’s Competitive Europe Week Summit.
— German Chancellor Olaf Scholz meets with French President Emmanuel Macron in Berlin at noon.
— U.N. Security Council meets to discuss the crisis in the Middle East in New York at 4 p.m. Brussels time (10 a.m. local time).
WEATHER: High 17C, cloudy with sunny intervals.
SPOTTED… at the German National Unity Day reception: Ambassadors to the EU Michael Clauß (Germany), Marcos Alonso Alonso (Spain), Vincenzo Celeste (Italy), Iulia Matei (Romania), Aingeal O’Donoghue (Ireland), Willem van de Voorde (Belgium), Philippe Léglise-Costa (France), Thomas Oberreiter (Austria), Ódor Bálint (Hungary) and Ioannis Vrailas (Greece), U.S. Ambassador to the EU Mark Gitenstein, Ukrainian Ambassador to the EU Vsevolod Chentsov, the EEAS’ Charles Fries, POLITICO’s Barbara Moens, Nick Vinocur and Jacopo Barigazzi, the FT’s Henry Foy and the Economist’s Stanley Pignal.
NEW PERM REP: Juraj Nociar, former head of cab for Commission EVP Maroš Šefčovič, became Slovakia’s permanent representative to the EU on Tuesday. 
STAFFING UP 1: France’s Laure Chapuis, a head of unit at DG Connect, is on track to become deputy chief of staff for incoming EU top diplomat Kaja Kallas, according to several people familiar with talks. Chapuis worked in the past for Kallas’ father Siim Kallas, a former European commissioner and Estonian PM, before joining the private office of former Commission VP Andrus Ansip in 2014.
STAFFING UP 2: Greece’s Anna Maria Boura will be European Council President-elect António Costa’s foreign policy adviser, several EU diplomats confirmed. Boura spent several years at the European External Action Service and most recently served as Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ chief diplomatic adviser.
ANOTHER NEW JOB: Javier Molina is the new Coreper II spokesperson in the Spanish permanent representation, substituting for Daniel Prada.
AND ANOTHER: Ben Ray joins Parliament President Roberta Metsola’s Cabinet as a speechwriter, after penning prose for Commissioner Janez Lenarčič.
AND YET ANOTHER: Former Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta, of Letta Report fame, will become dean of IE University in Madrid. He’ll remain president of the Delors Institute but resign his seat in the Italian parliament.
BIRTHDAYS: Former Estonian PM Siim Kallas; MEPs Kris Van Dijck and Benoît Cassart; former MEP Stasys Jakeliūnas; POLITICO’s Pieter Haeck; BlackRock’s Antony Manchester; European Commission’s Andreana Stankova, Madalina Mocanu and Franck Arrii; Orfeo’s Anne Deltour; and Playbook’s own Eddy Wax turns the big 3-0🎉!
THANKS TO: Max Griera, Eddy Wax, Camille Gijs, Barbara Moens, Aitor Hernández-Morales, Nektaria Stamouli and Clea Caulcutt; Playbook editor Alex Spence and producer Catherine Bouris.
This newsletter has been updated to clarify that France is sending a helicopter carrier to the eastern Mediterranean in response to the situation in Lebanon.
**A message from McDonald’s: At McDonald’s, we’re helping build bright, safe and inclusive futures. Through our supply chains and in our restaurants, we’re working to fulfill our commitment to respect the rights of all people and communities who produce, serve and enjoy our food. Diversity, equity and inclusion are crucial to representing the communities we serve and dismantling barriers to economic opportunity. In our 2023-2024 Purpose & Impact Report, we show how we substantially attained equal pay last year – and in 2024, we intend to close the remaining gaps. The Report also highlights our best-in-class employee experience, empowering our people to pursue their aspirations. Our Hamburger University training courses are available in 70 countries globally, both online and in nine locations. By looking after the people who work for us, we help deliver an enhanced customer experience for millions of customers in Europe and around the world.**
SUBSCRIBE to the POLITICO newsletter family: Brussels Playbook | London Playbook | London Playbook PM | Playbook Paris | EU Election Playbook | Berlin Playbook | Global Playbook | POLITICO Confidential | Sunday Crunch | EU Influence | London Influence | China Watcher | Berlin Bulletin | Living Cities | D.C. Playbook | D.C. Influence | All our POLITICO Pro policy morning newsletters